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Context:
Recently, concerns have been raised by leaders in southern Indian states regarding the ageing population and declining fertility rates.
More on the News:
Understanding the Ageing Population
The ageing population poses a significant challenge for southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, where the elderly population is projected to rise dramatically by 2036.
In Kerala, the elderly share is projected to increase from 16.5% to 22.8%, while Tamil Nadu's will rise from 13.7% to 20.8%.
According to the 2011 census, the median age of states in the south: Kerala (31.9 years), followed by Tamil Nadu (29.9); Andhra Pradesh (27.6); Karnataka (27.4); and Telangana (26.7).
Southern India has seen fertility rates drop significantly, with states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu averaging around 1.5 to 1.6 children per adult female, significantly below the national average of 2.
According to recent studies, the Aging Index—the number of elderly individuals per 100 children—is projected to be significantly higher in southern states.
Southern states will experience a larger increase compared to Northern states due to their earlier transition to lower fertility rates.
For instance, the South will reach 61.7 elderly per 100 children by 2036, compared to only 27.8 in parts of Central India.
Impact of the Ageing Population:
Political Representation: As populations in southern states stabilize or decline, their representation in Parliament may decrease, affecting their political power and resource allocation, while more populous Northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are likely to gain additional representation.
Economic and Healthcare Challenges: The increasing number of elderly individuals in Southern states is anticipated to escalate healthcare costs and place additional demands on social security systems. A high percentage of the aging population does imply that the state may have to spend more on taking care of this growing population.
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